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Purpose

SmartBracket is a tool to help you win a tournament pool by making undervalued picks, which gives you the best chance of earning points when your opponents don’t.
On this and the other linked pages, we provide a demonstration of the SmartBracket model for the 2015 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. We also provide backward-looking examples from the 2014 tournament, where the results are known, for benchmarking purposes.

Please note, this information is provided for demonstration and entertainment purposes only. See our disclaimer below.


 

Bracket Designed to Beat National Preferences


For the 2014 Tournament.
Check back starting 3/16/15 for the 2015 results!

SmartBracket recommendations against National Preferences

 
 

Description

SmartBracket uses both tournament predictions and your opponents picks to craft a bracket designed to score points when your opponents don’t, and break even when they do. That means choosing the upsets and picking the favorites that give you an advantage over your competition. SmartBracket often chooses teams that are underrated and neglected by your opponents. They may not be as likely to win, but if they do win, they promise a big payoff.

SmartBracket focuses on winning your pool, not predicting the “perfect” bracket. If you want to make the most “correct” picks, this may just be the wrong place for you, but, if your goal is to beat your opponents, you’ve come to the right place.

 

Comparing SmartBracket to Other Strategies

We believe SmartBracket gives you an edge over existing strategies. To support our claim, we’ve simulated thirty pools based on the competition you’re likely face this year. Each pool includes a Statistical Favorite bracket, a Highest Seed Bracket, an Average National Preference Bracket, and 26 more brackets generated from National Preferences. We let SmartBracket enter each of these pools, and simulated how the tournament might unfold ten thousand times.

In our internal testing, Smart Bracket comes out on top more than any of the competing strategies we tested. Furthermore, SmartBracket places in the top three more often than the competition.

Our simulations are based on the 2014 Tournament. For more in-depth comparisons and brackets designed to beat existing strategies, click here.

Check back on 3/16/15 for 2015 Tournament simulations!

Performance comparison of different strategies

 

 

The Method Behind SmartBracket

SmartBracket is powered by the patent-pending Rapid Recursive® method, which enables SmartBracket to consider all possible brackets and determine the one that gives you the best chance of winning your pool. Recursive methods are designed to evaluate current and future risks and opportunities by breaking large and complex problems, (filling out a full bracket) into a series of smaller, more addressable problems (which team to pick in a given game). The Rapid Recursive® method enables SmartBracket to evaluate all nine-quintillion possible brackets in less than a second.

To learn more about the Rapid Recursive® method or its applications in Marketing Strategy and Customer Life-Time value, Inventory Management, Policy Risk, or Theoretical economics, click here.


 

About Us

Supported Intelligence, LLC builds innovative, powerful, and reliable solutions for difficult decisions retail, finance, public policy, and economics. Our solutions are developed around our patent-pending Rapid Recursive® method, which is designed to evaluate current and future risks and opportunities by breaking large and complex problems, into a series of smaller more addressable problems. To learn more about us, please click here.


 

More Information

Read more about how SmartBracket works

See how SmartBracket would have performed in 2014
 


 

Legal Disclaimer

This model and the related content of this web site are for demonstration and entertainment purposes only.
Supported Intelligence, LLC does not recommend wagers on any game, and accepts no responsibility for losses that may be incurred by any person using the information on this site for gambling purposes
 
 

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