Comparing SmartBracket™ to Other Strategies
We believe SmartBracket™ gives you an edge over existing strategies. To support our claim, we’ve simulated how SmartBracket™ was likely to perform in 2014 and 2015. In each year, we simulated 30 pools based on competition one was likely to face in that year. Each pool includes a Statistical Favorite bracket, a Highest Seed Bracket, an Average National Preference Bracket, and 36 more simulated brackets generated from National Preference information reported by ESPN’s “Who Picked Whom” in 2014 and Yahoo! Sports in 2015. We used the SmartBracket™ algorithm to create a custom bracket designed to win each of these pools and simulated how the tournament might unfold ten thousand times. We show each strategy’s simulated win percentage, along with the percentage of the time each strategy ranked in the top three (called the “In The Money” percentage) below. All simulations are based on information known at the beginning of 2014 or 2015 Tournaments.
In simulations of the 2014 and 2015 tournaments, SmartBracket™ was equally or more successful than any of than any of the competing strategies we tested. SmartBracket won nearly 40-50% of the time and placed in the top three 60-75% of the time!
Here we provide the 2014 SmartBracket™ recommendations against 2014 National Preferences, as reported in ESPN’s “Who Picked Whom.” SmartBracket™ would have placed in the 66th Percentile in 2014.